As the United States gears up for its presidential election on November 5, analysts and traders are forecasting substantial impacts on Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movement. According to Daan Crypto Trades, a pseudonymous trader, Bitcoin price could fluctuate by at least 10% depending on which candidate emerges victorious. Sharing his insights with over 389,000 followers on the platform X (formerly Twitter), he noted that Bitcoin’s recent weekly close might appear unstable but suggested that election results would be the primary driver for its next move. Bitcoin price currently sits around $68,682, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours.
In the days leading up to the election, Bitcoin’s volatility index surged to a three-month high, according to data from the crypto derivatives exchange Derebit. This heightened volatility was exemplified last week when Bitcoin nearly broke its all-time high, hitting $74,649 on October 29 before retracting amid election uncertainties. The anticipation around the election has led to cautious sentiment in the market as traders await clearer signs on Bitcoin’s direction, especially with the potential for both gains and losses depending on the election outcome.
Key Price Levels to Watch Amid Volatile Market
Amid this period of heightened uncertainty, Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, issued an investment note stating that Bitcoin needs to break past the $74,000 resistance level to initiate a clear uptrend. A move above this mark, he said, could propel the cryptocurrency toward $80,000. However, Sycamore also urged caution, emphasizing that if Bitcoin dips below its $65,000 support level, this could mark a failed rally, potentially driving the cryptocurrency back into a prolonged downward trend seen over the past seven months.
This resistance level is especially significant given the prevailing optimism in the market about Bitcoin’s trajectory in the near term. Many analysts view risk assets like Bitcoin positively, with an uptrend likely to follow as market sentiment improves regardless of the election results. Still, Sycamore’s cautionary note highlights that Bitcoin’s future hinges on maintaining its current support level, as a breakdown could lead to renewed selling pressure and a return to recent lows.
Election Outcome and Policy Promises Could Influence Crypto Market
The U.S. election could be pivotal for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory, with each candidate’s stance on cryptocurrency influencing investor sentiment. Former President Donald Trump, known for his pro-crypto position, has made various promises to support innovation within the U.S. crypto sector. This stance has led many to believe that his win could drive Bitcoin prices higher in the short term. Conversely, Vice President Kamala Harris has not extensively discussed cryptocurrency but indicated on September 22 that her administration would promote investments in digital assets and artificial intelligence. This comment, though brief, suggests a potential openness toward blockchain and digital finance under her leadership.
Beyond the election, Bitcoin investors are also monitoring U.S. Federal Reserve policy closely. The Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18 has been perceived as a positive signal for crypto, as lower rates make traditional investments less attractive, potentially drawing more investors to riskier assets like Bitcoin. Analysts are now watching to see if the Fed will continue on this path, which could provide additional tailwinds for Bitcoin as investors seek higher returns amid a low-interest-rate environment.
